Test Bank Chapter 12 Forecast/Analytics Implementation

Forecasting and Predictive Analytics with Forecast X, 7e (Keating)

Chapter 12 Forecast/Analytics Implementation

1) Which of the following is important if forecasting is to have the desired positive effect on decisions?

A) Communication between forecast staff and management

B) Ranges of forecasts are reported to management.

C) Forecast combination is examined.

D) Forecast presentations should not be overly technical unless management desires.

E) All of the options are correct.

2) Which of the following is not an important role played by time in the forecast process?

A) Determining the forecast horizon

B) Determining the forecast method

C) Determining the forecast urgency

D) Determining the relevancy of forecast errors

E) All of the options are correct.

3) For the forecasting process to be effective, internal data should be

A) kept on an annual basis.

B) highly aggregated.

C) sampled once a year.

D) highly disaggregated.

E) None of the options are correct.

4) In preparing the actual forecast numbers, the forecast staff should

A) prepare a range of possible forecasts.

B) prepare forecast intervals.

C) prepare forecasts using different methods.

D) examine combined forecasting methods.

E) All of the options are correct.

5) Forecast errors

A) are inevitable, so discard them.

B) are inevitable, so they are not worth discussing with management.

C) are useful to the extent that they contain valuable information.

D) will get you fired!

E) None of the options are correct.

6) Which of the following methods requires technical expertise in the area of survey methods?

A) Sales force composites

B) Customer Surveys

C) Jury of Executive Opinion

D) Delphi method

E) All of the options are correct.

7) Which of the following models cannot absolutely be applied to seasonal data?

A) Winter's smoothing

B) Regression-based trend with seasonal dummies

C) Naïve models

D) ARIMA models

E) None of the options are correct.

8) Which of the following models does not require stationary data?

A) Simple Exponential Smoothing

B) Time Series Decomposition

C) Adaptive Response Rate Smoothing

D) Moving Averages

E) All of the options are correct.

9) Which of the following models are not generally the best to use when generating short-term forecasts?

A) Naïve methods

B) Moving averages

C) Simple exponential smoothing

D) Consumer Surveys

E) All of the options are correct.

10) Which forecasting model is most likely to appear as a "black box" to management?

A) Time series decomposition

B) Winter's smoothing

C) Causal regression

D) ARIMA models

E) Linear trend regression

11) For collaborative forecasting to be successful

A) everyone involved must be using structured data only.

B) each party must seek only to improve their individual forecast.

C) all those involved should be using the same model or algorithm.

D) all parties need to work together by treating the perspectives and biases of others as valuable.

12) The forecast should be

A) one piece of objective information that plays a part in the development of plans.

B) synonymous with the goal of the firm.

C) used as a goal setting function.

D) All of the options are correct.

13) Because the best software cannot automatically take into account the specific industry, marketing, and economic knowledge that a business professional may have,

A) the forecaster should consider imposing his/her biases on the final outcome.

B) it may be useful to take into account both quantitative and qualitative forecasts.

C) only quantitative forecasts should be used to reduce bias.

D) All of the options are correct.

14) The foundation, or base, for all predictions is

A) to keep all elements of the supply chain separated.

B) the preconception of the outcome.

C) data.

D) the choice of the optimal model or algorithm.

15) In the Forecasts/Analytics Implementation chapter a nine-step process was discussed which did not include which of the following?

A) Data considerations

B) The identification of model bias

C) Forecast presentation

D) Tracking results

16) Once you are satisfied with a model based on historical and _______, you should respecify the model using all the available data.

A) holdout period evaluations

B) fit statistics

C) analytical evaluation

D) diagnostic statistics

17) In the Forecast/Analytics Implementation chapter as a part of the forecast preparation recommendations, the authors

A) stated that the fewer the individuals involved, the better the outcomes were likely to be.

B) said that only the optimal method or algorithm should be used.

C) recommended the use of more than one forecasting method.

D) viewed the brevity of the process to be paramount.

18) Mark J. Lawless, who has been involved with forecasting within a number of corporations, including Chrysler, NCR, Ponderosa, and is a Director of the Institute of Business Forecasting, commented that

A) accuracy is an overrated goal.

B) too many figure or graphs will detract from the main message of the forecast, namely the number.

C) all forecasts should have a MAPE of less than 20 percent.

D) forecasts should be presented in language that functional managers can understand.

19) With respect to "Forecast Presentation," the authors suggested

A) always displaying all the data used to estimate the forecast.

B) that "pie charts" were the most used and most easily explained charts used by forecasters.

C) keeping tables relatively short.

D) the forecaster never provide point estimates.

20) "Tracking results" refers to

A) the adjustment of the forecast to meet the forecaster's bias.

B) examining deviations from the forecast and the actual future results.

C) the comparison of this firm's results with those of their closest competitor.

D) measuring the historical accuracy of any method or algorithm.

21) Forecasting and analytics models vary with respect to complexity. One of the most complex according to the authors was

A) moving averages.

B) exponential smoothing.

C) judgmental methods.

D) data mining.

22) Users of _______ forecasts must also be quite sophisticated, because even achieving a basic understanding of the method is not easy.

A) moving average

B) ARIMA

C) judgmental

D) Holt Winters

23) The data used in _______ is usually not time series data like that used in most of the forecasting models.

A) predictive analytics

B) Holt Winters

C) ARIMA

D) moving-average models

24) _______ is/are unstructured, not arranged in neat columns and rows with only numbers populating the various locations.

A) Spreadsheets

B) Text

C) Time series data

D) Cross-sectional data